To be fair, I think it was a Navy SEAL who pulled the trigger. Credit to Obama though for giving the finger to the Nobel Committee and sending out a hit squad.
Of all of the Kook decorations, I think I like that one the least.
Lets give Obama credit for invading another country and not getting out of the occupation business for three country. His actions like Bushes will be the end of our country. Occupations killed USSR, Enland, and Rome.....now America follows in the same foot steps.
Obama could have always had SEAL hunt this guy without invading and occupying three nations. It proves, the defense industry is really running this country.
He is leading the country in the wrong direction. Vote for some real change. Vote for someone who is not for occupying other nations.
I like Ron Paul. He has good ideas and I could vote for him but Ron Paul has already lost two times trying to run for the Presidency. So who's the loser Mary?
I voted for Ron Paul. I never talked with anyone that didn't vote for Ron Paul. What happened? I guess I just never talk to kooks or something. Well, except for annonymous ones here of course. And that's not really talking. More like Morris Code.
Ryan. I understand your point. I still believe you have much to learn about what will help America verses what will harm america. So, I believe you are one of the Kooks following the current path to destruction, and hence, a huge Kook.
You loser. You should vote for someone because you think they will win. Its not a horse race where you get returns. You should hopefully vote for someone you feel would steer the country in the right direction. Win or lose.
You should NOT vote for someone because you think they will win.
e.g. Obama vs. McCain. These two candidates were so horrible that the only rational decision is to vote third party. The majority chose the lesser of two evils, and look where it's gotten us. Voting for the two parties only perpetuates their stranglehold on America.
Maybe some day one of the two major parties will nominate someone worth supporting, but it doesn't look like it will happen in 2012.
Mary. I am no idealist. I am an independant voter and I have a year and a half to decide who I will vote for. Until we have term limits and laws that prevent congressmen and senators from working as lobbists when they leave office or those work work as lobbists and then run for office. Nothing is going to change. Congress is broken. It won't matter who is president. The system has been corrupted from within. Lawyers make the worst politicians!
Ok, the same Forbes that said $30/barrel oil is expensive right before oil began a climb to $140/barrel.
Congress has blown through countless self-imposed debt ceilings. As long as they can borrow and tax, why the heck will it matter if they tie the currency to gold, silver, dirty socks, or whatever... They can un-tie it whenever the going gets rough. Even when the dollar was tied to gold they revalued it. It's meaningless. Laws don't mean anything to drunken sailers.
W.C. is right again on both posts. Ryan- Good to hear. Ron Paul is a doctor not a lawyer. Yeah. HH- as usual, you are a total kook. what party or political policy do you think the USA should be following? Lets hear your dream platform?
Let's not make it personal, Mary. Who you agree with is irrelevant. If you have *facts* that counter my argument as to why gold is irrelevant and/or why Ron Paul is a populist douche bag clown, then let's hear them.
Fact: Congress has blown through every self-imposed debt limit it has ever set. When we were on the gold standard, they re-evaluated the setting so we could spend/print more! So why does it matter?
Fact: Ron Paul is against a woman's right to choose. Do we need more unwanted children? 1/6 of the people are on food stamps already.
Let's turn on our brains and turn off the TV. Sarah Palin, Donald Trump and yes, even Ron Paul, are clowns. I hope the republicans deliver some better candidates.
The answer to our country's issues is not some Ayn Rand fantasy world that Ron Paul would have you believe. While libertarians may have some worthwhile ideas, reverting to the gold standard is certainly not one of them, nor is it even remotely realistic. There is a reason Ron Paul is on the fringe of American politics...
On another note, I would agree that our country is headed for trouble with our mounting debt. While it is unfortunate that neither party seems overly interested in risking their political necks to do something about it, it is an even sadder state that the voters are too narrow-minded to force the issue. Everyone wants to have their cake and eat it too. Do we need a dose of austerity? Absolutely, but no one is willing to have the government take theirs.
Just look at the teachers union here in CA. The state is clearly in trouble, mostly because of overspending, yet rather than take their medicine, they (the unions) would much rather saddle someone else with the financial responsibility. "Better you than me" is not the right mind set to solve a problem that affects us all.
F1. In congress Ron Paul votes against raising the debt ceiling.
F2. Ron Paul is for small government and liberty. His personal beliefs are against abortion (of course- he delivered babies). I believe he believes the government should focus on fiscal and state matters and leave to the social issues to individuals and families.
I agree with you that this world doesn't need any more humans.
Apologies for the long post, but one more thing....
Anyone who would eliminate a woman's right to choose, is against the repeal of "don't ask, don't tell", and thinks the Civil Rights Act didn't do anything positive sounds like a msogynistic, homophobic, and racist asshole to me.
I sincerely hope the republicans can find a good candidate to change my mind. As it stands, the evil I know is better than the clowns they are parading around now.
Regardless of Ron Paul's vote, the debt ceiling always gets raised. Put us on a gold standard and that standard will change with the weather. Ron Paul is 100% in the pro-life camp. If he was really a libertarian he would say clearly, "I will let women chose, it is none of our business to decide such things." He has come out *CLEARLY* as pro-life, in the republican since. He's just another clown trying to get elected. Saying whatever... not using his brain.
In hindsight, Iraq was clearly a mistake, and it is unfortunate that we are still there. However, I don't think it is feasible to simple drop our rifles and leave. I think we have some responsibility to repair the damage we caused, though I would support leaving as soon as possible.
Afghanistan seems to be a mess mostly because our involvement in Iraq. I think it was a justifiable decision to invade. My stance now is colored by the fact that our lack of foresight previously in many ways lead to issues now. Had we not simply bailed on the mujahadeen after the Russian invasion, perhaps things would have been different. With that in mind, I think we should be cognisant of the implications of leaving too quickly. I trust our leaders to make the correct decision.
I fully support the action in Libya, although I would not support an invasion/occupation. As, in many ways, the leader of the free world, I do think it is our duty to support movements toward democracy. I also understand the complex geopolitical consequences of those actions, so each situation must be judged individually.
As for the bailouts. They certainly seemed necesary at the time, and they also seemed to have worked. I would, however, vigorously support any effort to bring to justice any wallstreet types who were involved in fraudulent activity. How many would be left standing would probably be a sad endictment of the banking industry. I'm not a fan, to say the least.
Speaking of kooks before the comments got deleted, we heard;
Ryan trusts his elected officials are making the right decision in Iraq, Afganistan, and Libya.
HH- Beleives you don't need to have your money supply backed by anything of value. Just keep printing that monopoly money so people can buy cars and real goods.
Phffff talk about Kooks.
Ryan and HH- Within 10 years you will see the huge mistake the USA made by taking on its crushing DEBT and its fictitious money supply policy. Inflation will skyrocket and the middle class will be close to elimination. China owns our DEBT and, hence, they own us. Better study up on Chinese kooks.
I think the point of this post was Obama apparently killed the man that Bush couldn't kill with countless wars, etc.
Mary, If you don't like your dollars you can go out and buy as much gold as you want.
If the government pegs the dollar to some specified amount of gold, then they'll simply unpeg it whenever it is convenient.
The government lifts the debt ceiling when convenient, it raises taxes when convenient and it uses the largest military on the planet... when convenient.
Thus, saying our dollar is backed by gold is silly. The U.S. government is the single largest holder of gold. China owns *some* of our debt, not all our debt. Every insurance company in the world owns U.S. debt. U.S. debt was the ONLY asset class that went up during the financial crisis (BTW, gold got hit pretty hard during the financial crisis).
A better world starts with all of us improving our education & thinking. Gold is not even rare and it's actual uses are limited. The process of digging it up results in heinous birth defects. Once it is out of the ground, it never goes away. Ron Paul is not a libertarian. He's a scared little man. There... I recapped all that was lost in this thread.
You are quite convincing in your recitations of tea party talking points. Since you seem to be the resident geopolitical and macroeconomic expert, I'd be curious to know what your solutions to our current problems are.
Oh Ryan- You have alot to learn. I hope you stay healthy to see the changes ahead. Why would you say the sky is falling? Its beautiful out.... Is that a joke you heard on MSN.com?
"Every insurance company in the world owns U.S. debt. U.S. debt was the ONLY asset class that went up during the financial crisis (BTW, gold got hit pretty hard during the financial crisis)."
Really? Gold got hit hard during the financial crisis? Which crisis? In 2005 gold was selling at $500 oz today its over $1,500 oz. I consider that a whopping rate of return.
Every Insurance Company in the world owned Mortgage Back Securities. How did that turn out?
The same holds true for a valueless US dollar. Currently, all the world including US citizens and the Chinese are dumping their US dollars, because they know they are valueless. Soon, the Chinese will quit taking payment in US dollars and we will no longer be able to buy and goods with the valueless dollar... then you'll know the true value of paper dollars. Maybe a dollar will buy a a sheet of toilet paper, or a Mexican peso.
HH- I never said the currency had to be backed by gold. I will also do with my assets what I choose and I will not be buying any Tbills that’s for sure. The US Government itself is doing a great job of buying its own debt (Tbills). You might wonder how does that works? Quite simply- It’s just flat out devaluing the dollar. Sad but true.
Talk is cheap. Let’s see where we are at in 2016, and then we will know who was right. Later Kooks.
Eliminate deficit spending? Ok, what are you going to cut?
Stop invading other countries. I would tend to agree, though sometimes we are left with little choice.
Stop giving money to other countries. You are beginning to strike me as quite the isolationist. Whatever you might believe, we do have signficant interests abroad most countries simply won't cowtow to us because we asked...
Since that was such a softball, maybe you could explain to me how the US would alter its monetary policy with a gold standard during a recession. Recessions have become increasingly shorter in duration since the great depression, mostly because of the FED's ability to expand the money supply. You can't just dig for more gold...
So now I'm part of the lamestream media? Why? Because I asked a question that is beyond your simplistic worldview? Come on Mary, be better than Sarah Palin.
And for your information, I do not identify with any specific news organization, though you certainly seem to fall under Fox's shadow...
Your (strikingly similar to Huntington Hartford's) blind faith in the omniscience and benevolence of the Federal Reserve is frightening.
how the US would alter its monetary policy with a gold standard during a recession. Recessions have become increasingly shorter in duration since the great depression, mostly because of the FED's ability to expand the money supply.
To accept as fact the Fed's self-promotional blather in the face of contrary facts is beneath you. To think that a bunch of central planners can repeal the business cycle is authoritarian hubris.
Greenspan thought he could prevent a recession in the wake of the tech bubble by flooding the world with easy money. Instead, he created an even bigger bubble and worse crash. And this most recent Fed-created recession was the worst since GD I, and the "recovery" has been by far the worst in terms of job recovery.
The Fed's track record of centrally planning the economy could not be worse. And yet you credulously buy their line of BS that without the Fed, things would be worse.
If the Fed's horrible track record of managing the economy isn't bad enough for you, how about Bernanke's horrible record of forecasting? He was still denying there was a problem with housing as it was collapsing all around us.
Ok, Professor of Economics Varones, please enlighten us on your proposed plan to replace the FED.
Firstly, no one believes that we can eliminate economic cycles, but we can, however, blunt their impact. You are correct that job creation has struggled, yet jobs are a lagging indicator, and furthermore, job recovery has been becoming an increasingly lengthy process through each successive cycle. This has more to do with globalization than monetary policy.
I find it laughable how easily you judge the FED in hindsight, and pretend that had your plan (???) been in place, this whole mess could have been avoided. The collapse had more to do with the utter lack of financial regulation, and the banks over-leveraging themselves to near death. Yet you, Ron Paul supporters, would like to see a libertarian/Ayn Rand world with little to no regulation, and you expect better results? Please...
P.S. This shouldn't be personal, I just enjoy the debate.
I think recessions are natural and healthy, like forest fires. When the Fed tries to stomp out every recession, it's like humans not allowing forest fires for 100 years. You get excess brush buildup, an unhealthy forest, and eventually the mother of all forest fires. That's what the Fed just did to us.
My preferred alternative would be sound money whether it be based on gold or a basket of commodities. With sound money, you'd likely have far less debt and risk throughout the system.
Incompetent and corrupt regulators and politicians (Robert Rubin, Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner, Sheila Bair, Chris Cox, Mary Schapiro, etc.) certainly played a large role in the bubble, but the whole thing was sent into overdrive with Greenspan's easy money.
I have more faith in Ben Bernanke than I have in an ounce of gold dug from a mine in Africa. That being said, it would be stupid to have faith in either one. Bernanke's job is not to central plan the economy and he isn't being judged on his ability to predict the future. No one should rely on any economists' predictions for anything.
I'm old. I have been around the world and lived in a few different places. Based on that, I do have blind faith in the good ole' USA. The last decade hasn't been great for some Americans, but it's been an amazing century. With all the investments and innovations that have taken place recently, I predict the next 100 years will be just as good. I don't see a place for gold but then again, I completely missed the housing bubble and the dotcom bubble... so in that sense I'm an idiot! Gold has all the makings to keep going higher but like the last 2 bubbles, fundamentals are no part of the gold story. Good luck getting out before everyone else. Some people do make a lot of money on bubbles. It's a shame this bubble will pollute the environment so much and does nothing to improve quality of life. I'm excited about the future! I goat for for more beers even though I already had a few this afternoon.
Recessions are certainly natural, though I would disagree that they are healthy. They arise out of investors irrational exuberance, and while the price correction is necessary, there is no reason to accept more pain than needed. The recovery should certainly be stimulated. I don't know that a poor economy benefits anyone.
To your other point, I'm not sure that a standard backed dollar would decrease risk or debt levels. The risk that weakened the system was not government related, and I'm sure wall street will invent ways to take on more risk and debt. They were the real driver of the collapse, not the FED. While the FED may have had a loose monetary policy, it was the excess risk taken that really caused the problem.
I don't think you can remove the risk taking out of the system, the great depression is a perfect example. The problem with a standard is that it limits the ability of the FED to react. It certainly seems realistic that the last crisis could have become a depression, but it didn't, and the shock seems pretty equivalent.
It's pretty well-documented and widely understood that loose monetary policy encourages risk-taking. I don't think even Bernanke or Greenspan would deny that.
The banks in the crisis had 50-to-1 leverage on crap assets. That would not happen with any sort of sound money system.
I'll tell you what: if you'll read and consider Ron Paul's End the Fed, a brief and easily readable book, I'll read and consider any pro-Fed argument you recommend.
HH- Do you think making paper and ink and making money is good for the environment?
I don't think so. If you look at the longevity of a coin compared to paper, the sustainability of a coin wins every time.
Why are you so hung up on gold? Both WC and I never said the monetary system needs to be backed by gold. It could and should be more than one commodity.
You must be old if you can say.... we'll the USA had an amazing century...so the next century will be great.
Thats likely what the English were saying right about 1900s, and USSR was saying about 1980, and Romans were saying about 300 AD. All the Empires crushed by their unsustainable DEBT.
the cycle is proven and we are well on our way to the collapse. Watch "180 Degrees South", or "I.O.U.S.A". Maybe that will open your eyes.
Sleep tight old one. You may pass before the big pain, but if you had children, your offspring will be greatly effected. When the collapse happens, all will feel it one way or another.
"It certainly seems realistic that the last crisis could have become a depression, but it didn't, and the shock seems pretty equivalent."
Young one. Just because MSNBC says we are out of the "Great Recession" doesn't mean squat. Expect home prices to go down another 20 to 30% and unemployment will jump up to 15-20% not get better for the next 3 to 5 years. I am talking about the next 3 to 5 years.
The real danger is the FEDs lead by the current politicians are doing everything to keep up the house of cards. The real problem as WC pointed out is its a house of cards.
You said then corrections are not necessary. I say the contrary. corrections occur every day and need to occur to keep the balance between supply and demand. Its when the government and greedy well connected humans manipulate the system when things get way out of equilibrium and bad thing happen.
the true solution would have been to not bail out the bank and the auto industry and let those who took the risk loose their assets. If that occurred, we would now have a vibrant economy.
Bush and all the cronnies including Greenspan, bernacki, and Obama are just doing everything in their power to extend the house of cards life. By doing so they are making the correction and personal pain for many that much worse.
I like the debate. W.C. nice writing. while I bang on the keyboards, you are obviously a scholar. Well done.
Ryan- Keep up the intrigue and the studying and one day you'll get closer to the truth. good luck.
If you would read my comments, you will note that I in fact did say that corrections are necesary.
I'd also like to know your current investment strategy as you seem to be of the belief that the sky will fall eventually. I'm going to take a guess and say that you do NOT put your money where your mouth is, and take a short position in the market. With housing facing a 20-30% drop, some CDS's would make you a killing. Nevermind, I'm sure you're a cash under the mattress type anyway...
And your collapse of the empire statement is just plain false. It isn't entirely known why Rome fell, but if it was debt, it likely had more to do with overexpansion and the cost of defense and infrastructure. The USSR is a particularly poor example! Ideology, and a horrendous economic model eventually sunk the Russians, and there empire was fleeting at best.
Come on Mary, you are telling me to study and learn, have you ever even studied economics?
Yes. I've studies economics and feel I have a much better handle on the current situation and forecasting than you.
Of course I am shorting the market. Just like last time.
I am definitely not a cash under the mattress kind of girl. Maybe coins or something valuable under the bed, but not paper cash. Paper cash is recycled trash. Its like the MBS a few years ago, a house of cards soon to collapse.
Your lack of finance is apparent by your comment, "some CDS's would make you a killing"
I don't consider 1 to 3% a killing. In fact, after inflation and taxes, you are going backwards if invested in CDs today.
Keep on studying Ryan. One good thing is you live in interesting times when economic conditions are changing faster than any other time in America. Unfortunately, in 30 years we won't have much if any of a middle class. I hope you end up on the upper end and not the screaming poor. At least that’s my goal.
Don't worry Ryan, we won't have to wait long to see who was right. I have already excepted it, so I can sleep at night. Those that are in denial have a lot of pain ahead.
Hmm... I'd be interested to hear your full explanation of the coming collapse. For someone who studies cycles, I haven't heard much more than DEBT, house of cards, and that I know nothing and can't sleep at night, not to mention that you don't seem to read my posts nor do you use proper grammar to construct eloquent arguments that would be expected from an "economist" such as yourself. Perhaps you could provide more than talking points?
construct eloquent arguments that would be expected from an "economist" such as yourself.
pffff. Thats one problem with the current loser economists like the FEDS... they only care about buzz lines and have faulty principles and logic. More simply, their track record sucks.
If you care to eloquently explain your education and success at tracking the economy, please do.
I believe I've been straight forward with my thoughts when asked a question. You have dodged every question as soon as it required specifics.
Of course, I wouldn't expect someone harboring fringe beliefs to be forthcoming with evidence to support them because there simply aren't any. You don't have the slightest understanding of what you profess to know, and no amount of hand waving and shouting will prove otherwise. You can call me a liberal MSNBCist, and young and dumb, and blind to reality all you want, but it doesn't hide the fact that you don't know what you are talking about.
I don't want to speak for Mary, but those "fringe" believers are the ones who saw the housing bust and financial crisis coming even as the establishment policymakers and commentators kept denying there was a problem, either out of mendacity or incompetence.
For an introduction to the alternative thinking that has proven far more accurate than the myopic "mainstream," I'd suggest reading Mike Shedlock, John Mauldin, and Michael Lewitt.
And now you can even add the world's biggest bond fund manager, Pimco's Bill Gross, to that group.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not opposed to differential thinking, and I would even go as far as to say that it enhances the debate. However, there is no place for ignorant dogma.
I can certainly find issue with the status quo, but I have yet to be convinced that radical change in needed. Having predicted the financial crisis doesn't necessarily change that. Perhaps they got lucky. It has been proven beyond doubt that no one can accurately time the market.
Do we have issues? Certainly, but I don't think the libertarian worldview is really the correct path. Feel free to present your arguments, but you have your work cut out for you!
Where are your arguments about which direction the economy is going? You just keep spouting off about nothing.
Again, good points W.C.
OK Ryan the future AP economist,
How about some forecasts. That what economists do, right?
I hit the housing bubble to the month of 11/2005 a year before it peaked. I have to admit, I didn’t do as well with the .com bust. I lost over $15k on that one. I forecast the gold spike but procrastinated and missed much of the run up the last 5 years.
Here is mine for next year 5/17/2012
The USA will have over 10% unemployment with the trends rising, the FEDS will be talking up a stimulus II package to of-course “ help get us out of this stubborn double dip Great Recession”, home prices will be down another 12 to 18% from today, and the president will have already dropped bomb or will be about to drop bombs on another nation ( the defense industry needs their profits right?)
The coming Trillion dollar stimulus II will be the breaking point for the US dollar (because at that point every world citizen will realize the USA is just like Greece today unsustainable and the US dollar is worth nothing) and it will collapse quickly once congressional approval looks eminent. That’s when all hell breaks loose.
2015 – 2025 If the current Republicrat (current republicans and democrats are nearly the same at this point) regime remains in control of our nation
From there we have sky high inflation (over 20%) which will result in massive pain (compared to their former high quality of life) for the common middle and lower class of America and either A)a bloodless coupe with redistribution of wealth, B) another major war (God don't let the nukes fly, but they probably will) or C) a complete chaotic civil war.
The powers at be will be pushing for Alternative B so they don't lose their position in society and control. Who knows what will be the outcome at that point.
OK Ryan, consult MSNBC and Associated Press and tell me your predictions for the coming year.
Put it on the blog and we can come back in one year and see who’s closer to reality.
Come on Ryan, let’s quit the chatter and put it on paper young man.
It's about the insanity of current policy. We are running serial deficits of 10% of GDP, a magnitude most recently seen in Greece.
Yes, the MSM give lip service to "the deficit," but they convey no sense of the magnitude of the problem. We are living so far beyond our means it's unbelievable. The government is borrowing 40 cents of every dollar it spends just to keep the economy limping along at its current anemic level. To say this is unsustainable is an understatement.
The recent budget deal was a joke. The Democrats couldn't find a single thing they wanted to cut in a $3.5 trillion budget, and the Republicans settled for "cuts" that amounted to less than a rounding error.
We have 14% of the population on food stamps. We are spending blood and treasure to maintain a global military empire to ensure cheap gas.
The government can't possibly tax enough to pay for this level of spending, so it's borrowing and printing insane amounts of money to keep it going. See Zimbabwe.
I won't predict as specifically as Mary exactly how this will all play out. I think we could have political resistance in Washington to the next stimulus and the next QE. Or maybe the pain can even be delayed for several more years with more bailouts, handouts, and money printing. But there will be serious pain of some sort when fiscal and monetary policy is this out of control.
There is no way anyone can predict 3 to 5 years out accurately.
I was just laying out the logical arguments on the likely options will occur if the people in this country like Ryan don't wake up and see the seriousness of the situation. I am convinced the public are generally stupid sheep and will gladly keep their current comforts and belief that everything is O.K. as their shepherds lead them over the cliff.
History has proven that to be the case over and over again.
Come on W.C., you're well studied in the matter and seem to have a logical understanding of the issues. Give a prediction on where the economy will be at 5/17/2012. And Ryan- Quit the chatter and pony up!
Mary, you make me laugh. All you can talk about is your predictions and how great you are at timing the market. How about detailing your solutions? Anyone can rant on about problems, but you offer overly simplistic solutions and even when asked, provide no details.
Maybe you have not paid attention previously, but I 100% agree that the deficit should be priority number one. Both parties talk about the issue, but no one seems willing to take the first step. Why? Because it will be political suicide to propose the cuts that actually need to happen. We absolutely need to reform Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, but I would be that even the most ardent Tea Partier would balk at losing theirs.
What I see as the issue is that there is so much vitriol in politics (See Mary), that neither side can take a bold step without the other ruining them. Its unfortunate.
As for the upcoming year: I see the economy continuing to recover, though I doubt it will be quick. The jobs will come back, albeit slowly, and housing will continue to struggle due to the backlog of foreclosures. I think we'll have an extended hangover, but I don't think we'll fall back into a recession. Interest rates will rise with the return of inflation, but I don't think it will be too worrisome. Much better than the previously predicted deflation.
As for the future, no blood, no uprising, no civil war, and the middle class will be fine. I think the US will learn from its mistakes in Iraq, though probably not forever.
Go ahead Mary, scream away with your BS. It seems to be your only talent.
Thanks for stepping up with your predictions. We shall see? I am glad I make you laugh. You make me laugh and cry at the same time. You sound to me the typical American.
What are you talking about? “We absolutely need to reform Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, but I would be that even the most ardent Tea Partier would balk at losing theirs.”
I never considered Medicare, Medicaid or social security a secured benefit. You can’t lose what you don’t have.
I never provided suggestions on how to correct the situation? WTF? Here they are as simple as you can get.
1. Cut medicare, social security and welfare to levels need to balance the budget along with the the cuts to the defence industry explained in 2. Everyone in the USA would still survive and maintain higher quality of lives than 90% of the human pollution around the world. 2. End the occupations and return our military to a defense military not an occupation force. With that cut the military budget 30 to 40% and do a massive downsize operation 3. With the saving from 2 above, have the Country’s goal to focus on providing the most educated workforce in the world. Increase the budget for education.
There you have it Ryan. My solutions. I know the current Republicrat will not even consider any of the above suggestions. So in my opinion, we are screws.
I will post again on this topic on 5/17/2012 and lets see how we did?
I “hope” your predictions come true. I am just not counting on it.
Have a great year and I’m still waiting for W.C.’s predictions for the upcoming year. Come on W.C. jump in. The waters warm.
4. with the savings from 2, implement a reserve or payment program to eliminate our national debt in 30 to 40 years. Don't give any handouts to other countries until our debt is paid.
If we did the above, the world would see us as taking ownership of our future, confidence would be restored, and jobs would return.
If I had to guess for one year out I would say stagflation. More or less what we have right now, maybe a little worse on either inflation or unemployment.
No, I'm actually an optimist, if you consider the range of outcomes for countries that run serial deficits of 10% of GDP.
Please find me a country that ran serial deficits of 10% of GDP and had a happy outcome. And no, the US in WWII doesn't count, because that spending was to transport the entire draft age male population halfway around the world to fight the biggest war in history. And as soon as the war was over, we not only eliminated the war deficit, we ran surpluses.
Even if we brought all troops home immediately from Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, South Korea, Germany, and everywhere else in the empire, it wouldn't come close to balancing the budget.
We're not post-WWII America. We're Greece.
So if you have an argument for how we're going to get out of Greece-style 10% GDP deficits, I'd love to hear it.
To be fair, I think it was a Navy SEAL who pulled the trigger. Credit to Obama though for giving the finger to the Nobel Committee and sending out a hit squad.
ReplyDeleteOf all of the Kook decorations, I think I like that one the least.
Lets give Obama credit for invading another country and not getting out of the occupation business for three country. His actions like Bushes will be the end of our country. Occupations killed USSR, Enland, and Rome.....now America follows in the same foot steps.
ReplyDeleteObama could have always had SEAL hunt this guy without invading and occupying three nations. It proves, the defense industry is really running this country.
He is leading the country in the wrong direction. Vote for some real change. Vote for someone who is not for occupying other nations.
Speaking of kooks..........
ReplyDeleteFinally we all agree. Our country is lead by a Kook.
ReplyDeleteOh yeah... Who's going to be able to lead this Nation of Nuts? Newt? Trump? Sarah? Mitt? Please!
ReplyDeleteThey are all losers like you. What we need is a winner like Ron Paul.
ReplyDeleteRon Paul is the pied piper of kooks.
ReplyDeleteIf Bush and Obama with their perpetual wars and generational theft are mainstream, I'd say it's about time we tried a kook.
ReplyDeleteNo Ryan. Your comment proves that you are the pied piper of kooks and you have a lot to learn, Kook.
ReplyDeleteI like Ron Paul. He has good ideas and I could vote for him but Ron Paul has already lost two times trying to run for the Presidency. So who's the loser Mary?
ReplyDeleteNot sure you fully grasped what I was alluding to Mary...... Are my words truly music to your ears?
ReplyDeleteI voted for Ron Paul. I never talked with anyone that didn't vote for Ron Paul. What happened? I guess I just never talk to kooks or something. Well, except for annonymous ones here of course. And that's not really talking. More like Morris Code.
ReplyDeleteRyan. I understand your point. I still believe you have much to learn about what will help America verses what will harm america. So, I believe you are one of the Kooks following the current path to destruction, and hence, a huge Kook.
ReplyDeleteYou loser. You should vote for someone because you think they will win. Its not a horse race where you get returns. You should hopefully vote for someone you feel would steer the country in the right direction. Win or lose.
ReplyDeleteMary, I think you meant to put a NOT in there.
ReplyDeleteYou should NOT vote for someone because you think they will win.
e.g. Obama vs. McCain. These two candidates were so horrible that the only rational decision is to vote third party. The majority chose the lesser of two evils, and look where it's gotten us. Voting for the two parties only perpetuates their stranglehold on America.
Maybe some day one of the two major parties will nominate someone worth supporting, but it doesn't look like it will happen in 2012.
Mary. I am no idealist. I am an independant voter and I have a year and a half to decide who I will vote for. Until we have term limits and laws that prevent congressmen and senators from working as lobbists when they leave office or those work work as lobbists and then run for office. Nothing is going to change. Congress is broken. It won't matter who is president. The system has been corrupted from within. Lawyers make the worst politicians!
ReplyDeleteI goat for four more beers.
ReplyDeleteRon Paul is a kook. He wants us to start using gold as money and wants more unwanted babies to start flooding our streets.
Not use gold as money, HH. Just have money that is backed by something sound and not printable at will by an unaccountable Federal Reserve.
ReplyDeleteIt's a position shared by the publisher of the long-time business magazine Forbes.
Ok, the same Forbes that said $30/barrel oil is expensive right before oil began a climb to $140/barrel.
ReplyDeleteCongress has blown through countless self-imposed debt ceilings. As long as they can borrow and tax, why the heck will it matter if they tie the currency to gold, silver, dirty socks, or whatever... They can un-tie it whenever the going gets rough. Even when the dollar was tied to gold they revalued it. It's meaningless. Laws don't mean anything to drunken sailers.
W.C. is right again on both posts. Ryan- Good to hear. Ron Paul is a doctor not a lawyer. Yeah. HH- as usual, you are a total kook. what party or political policy do you think the USA should be following? Lets hear your dream platform?
ReplyDeleteLet's not make it personal, Mary. Who you agree with is irrelevant. If you have *facts* that counter my argument as to why gold is irrelevant and/or why Ron Paul is a populist douche bag clown, then let's hear them.
ReplyDeleteFact: Congress has blown through every self-imposed debt limit it has ever set. When we were on the gold standard, they re-evaluated the setting so we could spend/print more! So why does it matter?
Fact: Ron Paul is against a woman's right to choose. Do we need more unwanted children? 1/6 of the people are on food stamps already.
Let's turn on our brains and turn off the TV. Sarah Palin, Donald Trump and yes, even Ron Paul, are clowns. I hope the republicans deliver some better candidates.
The answer to our country's issues is not some Ayn Rand fantasy world that Ron Paul would have you believe. While libertarians may have some worthwhile ideas, reverting to the gold standard is certainly not one of them, nor is it even remotely realistic. There is a reason Ron Paul is on the fringe of American politics...
ReplyDeleteOn another note, I would agree that our country is headed for trouble with our mounting debt. While it is unfortunate that neither party seems overly interested in risking their political necks to do something about it, it is an even sadder state that the voters are too narrow-minded to force the issue. Everyone wants to have their cake and eat it too. Do we need a dose of austerity? Absolutely, but no one is willing to have the government take theirs.
Just look at the teachers union here in CA. The state is clearly in trouble, mostly because of overspending, yet rather than take their medicine, they (the unions) would much rather saddle someone else with the financial responsibility. "Better you than me" is not the right mind set to solve a problem that affects us all.
HH-
ReplyDeleteGo to Ron Paul's website.
F1. In congress Ron Paul votes against raising the debt ceiling.
F2. Ron Paul is for small government and liberty. His personal beliefs are against abortion (of course- he delivered babies). I believe he believes the government should focus on fiscal and state matters and leave to the social issues to individuals and families.
I agree with you that this world doesn't need any more humans.
So whats your platform HH?
Apologies for the long post, but one more thing....
ReplyDeleteAnyone who would eliminate a woman's right to choose, is against the repeal of "don't ask, don't tell", and thinks the Civil Rights Act didn't do anything positive sounds like a msogynistic, homophobic, and racist asshole to me.
Just sayin'...
Ryan-
ReplyDeleteSo do you support Obama occupying Iraq, Afganistan, and invading Libya while our country crumbles from its unsustainable debt?
Or Obama's bail out of the banks and the autoindustry on the backs of our childrens future and quality of life?
Just askin.....
I sincerely hope the republicans can find a good candidate to change my mind. As it stands, the evil I know is better than the clowns they are parading around now.
ReplyDeleteRegardless of Ron Paul's vote, the debt ceiling always gets raised. Put us on a gold standard and that standard will change with the weather. Ron Paul is 100% in the pro-life camp. If he was really a libertarian he would say clearly, "I will let women chose, it is none of our business to decide such things." He has come out *CLEARLY* as pro-life, in the republican since. He's just another clown trying to get elected. Saying whatever... not using his brain.
Mary,
ReplyDeleteIn hindsight, Iraq was clearly a mistake, and it is unfortunate that we are still there. However, I don't think it is feasible to simple drop our rifles and leave. I think we have some responsibility to repair the damage we caused, though I would support leaving as soon as possible.
Afghanistan seems to be a mess mostly because our involvement in Iraq. I think it was a justifiable decision to invade. My stance now is colored by the fact that our lack of foresight previously in many ways lead to issues now. Had we not simply bailed on the mujahadeen after the Russian invasion, perhaps things would have been different. With that in mind, I think we should be cognisant of the implications of leaving too quickly. I trust our leaders to make the correct decision.
I fully support the action in Libya, although I would not support an invasion/occupation. As, in many ways, the leader of the free world, I do think it is our duty to support movements toward democracy. I also understand the complex geopolitical consequences of those actions, so each situation must be judged individually.
The banks should be more tightly regulated, though I don't think that falls in line with Ron Paul's worldview. What say you Mary?
ReplyDeleteAs for the bailouts. They certainly seemed necesary at the time, and they also seemed to have worked. I would, however, vigorously support any effort to bring to justice any wallstreet types who were involved in fraudulent activity. How many would be left standing would probably be a sad endictment of the banking industry. I'm not a fan, to say the least.
ReplyDeleteYou can't be a libertarian except for regulations and abortion.
ReplyDeleteThat's like being a vegetarian except for steak and ribs.
Hah!
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of kooks before the comments got deleted, we heard;
ReplyDeleteRyan trusts his elected officials are making the right decision in Iraq, Afganistan, and Libya.
HH- Beleives you don't need to have your money supply backed by anything of value. Just keep printing that monopoly money so people can buy cars and real goods.
Phffff talk about Kooks.
Ryan and HH- Within 10 years you will see the huge mistake the USA made by taking on its crushing DEBT and its fictitious money supply policy. Inflation will skyrocket and the middle class will be close to elimination. China owns our DEBT and, hence, they own us. Better study up on Chinese kooks.
I think the point of this post was Obama apparently killed the man that Bush couldn't kill with countless wars, etc.
ReplyDeleteMary, If you don't like your dollars you can go out and buy as much gold as you want.
If the government pegs the dollar to some specified amount of gold, then they'll simply unpeg it whenever it is convenient.
The government lifts the debt ceiling when convenient, it raises taxes when convenient and it uses the largest military on the planet... when convenient.
Thus, saying our dollar is backed by gold is silly. The U.S. government is the single largest holder of gold. China owns *some* of our debt, not all our debt. Every insurance company in the world owns U.S. debt. U.S. debt was the ONLY asset class that went up during the financial crisis (BTW, gold got hit pretty hard during the financial crisis).
A better world starts with all of us improving our education & thinking. Gold is not even rare and it's actual uses are limited. The process of digging it up results in heinous birth defects. Once it is out of the ground, it never goes away. Ron Paul is not a libertarian. He's a scared little man. There... I recapped all that was lost in this thread.
Mary,
ReplyDeleteYou are quite convincing in your recitations of tea party talking points. Since you seem to be the resident geopolitical and macroeconomic expert, I'd be curious to know what your solutions to our current problems are.
In other news, the sky appears to be falling!
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ReplyDeleteOh Ryan- You have alot to learn. I hope you stay healthy to see the changes ahead. Why would you say the sky is falling? Its beautiful out.... Is that a joke you heard on MSN.com?
ReplyDelete"Every insurance company in the world owns U.S. debt. U.S. debt was the ONLY asset class that went up during the financial crisis (BTW, gold got hit pretty hard during the financial crisis)."
ReplyDeleteReally? Gold got hit hard during the financial crisis? Which crisis? In 2005 gold was selling at $500 oz today its over $1,500 oz. I consider that a whopping rate of return.
http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx
Every Insurance Company in the world owned Mortgage Back Securities. How did that turn out?
The same holds true for a valueless US dollar. Currently, all the world including US citizens and the Chinese are dumping their US dollars, because they know they are valueless. Soon, the Chinese will quit taking payment in US dollars and we will no longer be able to buy and goods with the valueless dollar... then you'll know the true value of paper dollars. Maybe a dollar will buy a a sheet of toilet paper, or a Mexican peso.
HH- I never said the currency had to be backed by gold. I will also do with my assets what I choose and I will not be buying any Tbills that’s for sure. The US Government itself is doing a great job of buying its own debt (Tbills). You might wonder how does that works? Quite simply- It’s just flat out devaluing the dollar. Sad but true.
Talk is cheap. Let’s see where we are at in 2016, and then we will know who was right. Later Kooks.
"Since you seem to be the resident geopolitical and macroeconomic expert, I'd be curious to know what your solutions to our current problems are."
ReplyDeleteRyan- Are you kidding? OK here are three really easy and important ones.
1. Eliminate deficit spending immediately and implement a plan to eliminate our national debt in 30 years.
2. Quit invading other nations and spend our tax money saved on Education.
3. Quit giving our money to other nations until we pay off our DEBT.
Eliminate deficit spending? Ok, what are you going to cut?
ReplyDeleteStop invading other countries. I would tend to agree, though sometimes we are left with little choice.
Stop giving money to other countries. You are beginning to strike me as quite the isolationist. Whatever you might believe, we do have signficant interests abroad most countries simply won't cowtow to us because we asked...
Since that was such a softball, maybe you could explain to me how the US would alter its monetary policy with a gold standard during a recession. Recessions have become increasingly shorter in duration since the great depression, mostly because of the FED's ability to expand the money supply. You can't just dig for more gold...
Ryan,
ReplyDeleteAgain. You sound right in line with MSNBC. It blows me away that people like you really exist. Do you work for the Associated Press or something?
I think I'll leave it with I agree that we disagree.
Lets wait 10 years and see who was right. Now I intend to enjoy today and take a break from blog land. Enjoy!
So now I'm part of the lamestream media? Why? Because I asked a question that is beyond your simplistic worldview? Come on Mary, be better than Sarah Palin.
ReplyDeleteAnd for your information, I do not identify with any specific news organization, though you certainly seem to fall under Fox's shadow...
My apologies for ruining your day.
Ryan,
ReplyDeleteYour (strikingly similar to Huntington Hartford's) blind faith in the omniscience and benevolence of the Federal Reserve is frightening.
how the US would alter its monetary policy with a gold standard during a recession. Recessions have become increasingly shorter in duration since the great depression, mostly because of the FED's ability to expand the money supply.
To accept as fact the Fed's self-promotional blather in the face of contrary facts is beneath you. To think that a bunch of central planners can repeal the business cycle is authoritarian hubris.
Greenspan thought he could prevent a recession in the wake of the tech bubble by flooding the world with easy money. Instead, he created an even bigger bubble and worse crash. And this most recent Fed-created recession was the worst since GD I, and the "recovery" has been by far the worst in terms of job recovery.
The Fed's track record of centrally planning the economy could not be worse. And yet you credulously buy their line of BS that without the Fed, things would be worse.
If the Fed's horrible track record of managing the economy isn't bad enough for you, how about Bernanke's horrible record of forecasting? He was still denying there was a problem with housing as it was collapsing all around us.
Ok, Professor of Economics Varones, please enlighten us on your proposed plan to replace the FED.
ReplyDeleteFirstly, no one believes that we can eliminate economic cycles, but we can, however, blunt their impact. You are correct that job creation has struggled, yet jobs are a lagging indicator, and furthermore, job recovery has been becoming an increasingly lengthy process through each successive cycle. This has more to do with globalization than monetary policy.
I find it laughable how easily you judge the FED in hindsight, and pretend that had your plan (???) been in place, this whole mess could have been avoided. The collapse had more to do with the utter lack of financial regulation, and the banks over-leveraging themselves to near death. Yet you, Ron Paul supporters, would like to see a libertarian/Ayn Rand world with little to no regulation, and you expect better results? Please...
P.S.
This shouldn't be personal, I just enjoy the debate.
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ReplyDeleteRyan,
ReplyDeleteI agree - not personal at all - good debate.
I think recessions are natural and healthy, like forest fires. When the Fed tries to stomp out every recession, it's like humans not allowing forest fires for 100 years. You get excess brush buildup, an unhealthy forest, and eventually the mother of all forest fires. That's what the Fed just did to us.
My preferred alternative would be sound money whether it be based on gold or a basket of commodities. With sound money, you'd likely have far less debt and risk throughout the system.
Incompetent and corrupt regulators and politicians (Robert Rubin, Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner, Sheila Bair, Chris Cox, Mary Schapiro, etc.) certainly played a large role in the bubble, but the whole thing was sent into overdrive with Greenspan's easy money.
I have more faith in Ben Bernanke than I have in an ounce of gold dug from a mine in Africa. That being said, it would be stupid to have faith in either one. Bernanke's job is not to central plan the economy and he isn't being judged on his ability to predict the future. No one should rely on any economists' predictions for anything.
ReplyDeleteI'm old. I have been around the world and lived in a few different places. Based on that, I do have blind faith in the good ole' USA. The last decade hasn't been great for some Americans, but it's been an amazing century. With all the investments and innovations that have taken place recently, I predict the next 100 years will be just as good. I don't see a place for gold but then again, I completely missed the housing bubble and the dotcom bubble... so in that sense I'm an idiot! Gold has all the makings to keep going higher but like the last 2 bubbles, fundamentals are no part of the gold story. Good luck getting out before everyone else. Some people do make a lot of money on bubbles. It's a shame this bubble will pollute the environment so much and does nothing to improve quality of life. I'm excited about the future! I goat for for more beers even though I already had a few this afternoon.
W.C.
ReplyDeleteHappy we can have a civil discussion.
Recessions are certainly natural, though I would disagree that they are healthy. They arise out of investors irrational exuberance, and while the price correction is necessary, there is no reason to accept more pain than needed. The recovery should certainly be stimulated. I don't know that a poor economy benefits anyone.
To your other point, I'm not sure that a standard backed dollar would decrease risk or debt levels. The risk that weakened the system was not government related, and I'm sure wall street will invent ways to take on more risk and debt. They were the real driver of the collapse, not the FED. While the FED may have had a loose monetary policy, it was the excess risk taken that really caused the problem.
I don't think you can remove the risk taking out of the system, the great depression is a perfect example. The problem with a standard is that it limits the ability of the FED to react. It certainly seems realistic that the last crisis could have become a depression, but it didn't, and the shock seems pretty equivalent.
Ryan,
ReplyDeleteIt's pretty well-documented and widely understood that loose monetary policy encourages risk-taking. I don't think even Bernanke or Greenspan would deny that.
The banks in the crisis had 50-to-1 leverage on crap assets. That would not happen with any sort of sound money system.
I'll tell you what: if you'll read and consider Ron Paul's End the Fed, a brief and easily readable book, I'll read and consider any pro-Fed argument you recommend.
HH- Do you think making paper and ink and making money is good for the environment?
ReplyDeleteI don't think so. If you look at the longevity of a coin compared to paper, the sustainability of a coin wins every time.
Why are you so hung up on gold? Both WC and I never said the monetary system needs to be backed by gold. It could and should be more than one commodity.
You must be old if you can say.... we'll the USA had an amazing century...so the next century will be great.
Thats likely what the English were saying right about 1900s, and USSR was saying about 1980, and Romans were saying about 300 AD. All the Empires crushed by their unsustainable DEBT.
the cycle is proven and we are well on our way to the collapse. Watch "180 Degrees South", or "I.O.U.S.A". Maybe that will open your eyes.
Sleep tight old one. You may pass before the big pain, but if you had children, your offspring will be greatly effected. When the collapse happens, all will feel it one way or another.
"It certainly seems realistic that the last crisis could have become a depression, but it didn't, and the shock seems pretty equivalent."
ReplyDeleteYoung one. Just because MSNBC says we are out of the "Great Recession" doesn't mean squat. Expect home prices to go down another 20 to 30% and unemployment will jump up to 15-20% not get better for the next 3 to 5 years. I am talking about the next 3 to 5 years.
The real danger is the FEDs lead by the current politicians are doing everything to keep up the house of cards. The real problem as WC pointed out is its a house of cards.
You said then corrections are not necessary. I say the contrary. corrections occur every day and need to occur to keep the balance between supply and demand. Its when the government and greedy well connected humans manipulate the system when things get way out of equilibrium and bad thing happen.
the true solution would have been to not bail out the bank and the auto industry and let those who took the risk loose their assets. If that occurred, we would now have a vibrant economy.
Bush and all the cronnies including Greenspan, bernacki, and Obama are just doing everything in their power to extend the house of cards life. By doing so they are making the correction and personal pain for many that much worse.
I like the debate. W.C. nice writing. while I bang on the keyboards, you are obviously a scholar. Well done.
Ryan- Keep up the intrigue and the studying and one day you'll get closer to the truth. good luck.
Oh HH- I forgot about you. You are too old to learn anything because you don't want to open your mind.
ReplyDeleteSleep tight old one. Perception is reality in most circumstances.
Haha, Mary you make me laugh...
ReplyDeleteIf you would read my comments, you will note that I in fact did say that corrections are necesary.
I'd also like to know your current investment strategy as you seem to be of the belief that the sky will fall eventually. I'm going to take a guess and say that you do NOT put your money where your mouth is, and take a short position in the market. With housing facing a 20-30% drop, some CDS's would make you a killing. Nevermind, I'm sure you're a cash under the mattress type anyway...
And your collapse of the empire statement is just plain false. It isn't entirely known why Rome fell, but if it was debt, it likely had more to do with overexpansion and the cost of defense and infrastructure. The USSR is a particularly poor example! Ideology, and a horrendous economic model eventually sunk the Russians, and there empire was fleeting at best.
ReplyDeleteCome on Mary, you are telling me to study and learn, have you ever even studied economics?
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ReplyDeleteRyan,
ReplyDeleteYes. I've studies economics and feel I have a much better handle on the current situation and forecasting than you.
Of course I am shorting the market. Just like last time.
I am definitely not a cash under the mattress kind of girl. Maybe coins or something valuable under the bed, but not paper cash. Paper cash is recycled trash. Its like the MBS a few years ago, a house of cards soon to collapse.
Your lack of finance is apparent by your comment, "some CDS's would make you a killing"
I don't consider 1 to 3% a killing. In fact, after inflation and taxes, you are going backwards if invested in CDs today.
Keep on studying Ryan. One good thing is you live in interesting times when economic conditions are changing faster than any other time in America. Unfortunately, in 30 years we won't have much if any of a middle class. I hope you end up on the upper end and not the screaming poor. At least that’s my goal.
Don't worry Ryan, we won't have to wait long to see who was right. I have already excepted it, so I can sleep at night. Those that are in denial have a lot of pain ahead.
Credit Default Swaps...
ReplyDeleteAnd now I'm curious, Mary. What IS your background, and what do you do?
ReplyDeleteI study cycles, try to preserve my current wealth, and make a little income for my family to survive. what do you do for a living?
ReplyDeleteHmm... I'd be interested to hear your full explanation of the coming collapse. For someone who studies cycles, I haven't heard much more than DEBT, house of cards, and that I know nothing and can't sleep at night, not to mention that you don't seem to read my posts nor do you use proper grammar to construct eloquent arguments that would be expected from an "economist" such as yourself. Perhaps you could provide more than talking points?
ReplyDeleteconstruct eloquent arguments that would be expected from an "economist" such as yourself.
ReplyDeletepffff. Thats one problem with the current loser economists like the FEDS... they only care about buzz lines and have faulty principles and logic. More simply, their track record sucks.
If you care to eloquently explain your education and success at tracking the economy, please do.
Mary,
ReplyDeleteYou haven't answered a single pointed question. And you tell me that I have a lot to learn...
and you have?
ReplyDeleteI believe I've been straight forward with my thoughts when asked a question. You have dodged every question as soon as it required specifics.
ReplyDeleteOf course, I wouldn't expect someone harboring fringe beliefs to be forthcoming with evidence to support them because there simply aren't any. You don't have the slightest understanding of what you profess to know, and no amount of hand waving and shouting will prove otherwise. You can call me a liberal MSNBCist, and young and dumb, and blind to reality all you want, but it doesn't hide the fact that you don't know what you are talking about.
Ryan,
ReplyDeleteI don't want to speak for Mary, but those "fringe" believers are the ones who saw the housing bust and financial crisis coming even as the establishment policymakers and commentators kept denying there was a problem, either out of mendacity or incompetence.
For an introduction to the alternative thinking that has proven far more accurate than the myopic "mainstream," I'd suggest reading Mike Shedlock, John Mauldin, and Michael Lewitt.
And now you can even add the world's biggest bond fund manager, Pimco's Bill Gross, to that group.
Not so fringe any more.
W.C.
ReplyDeleteDon't get me wrong, I'm not opposed to differential thinking, and I would even go as far as to say that it enhances the debate. However, there is no place for ignorant dogma.
I can certainly find issue with the status quo, but I have yet to be convinced that radical change in needed. Having predicted the financial crisis doesn't necessarily change that. Perhaps they got lucky. It has been proven beyond doubt that no one can accurately time the market.
Do we have issues? Certainly, but I don't think the libertarian worldview is really the correct path. Feel free to present your arguments, but you have your work cut out for you!
Ryan,
ReplyDeleteWhere are your arguments about which direction the economy is going? You just keep spouting off about nothing.
Again, good points W.C.
OK Ryan the future AP economist,
How about some forecasts. That what economists do, right?
I hit the housing bubble to the month of 11/2005 a year before it peaked. I have to admit, I didn’t do as well with the .com bust. I lost over $15k on that one. I forecast the gold spike but procrastinated and missed much of the run up the last 5 years.
Here is mine for next year
5/17/2012
The USA will have over 10% unemployment with the trends rising, the FEDS will be talking up a stimulus II package to of-course “ help get us out of this stubborn double dip Great Recession”, home prices will be down another 12 to 18% from today, and the president will have already dropped bomb or will be about to drop bombs on another nation ( the defense industry needs their profits right?)
The coming Trillion dollar stimulus II will be the breaking point for the US dollar (because at that point every world citizen will realize the USA is just like Greece today unsustainable and the US dollar is worth nothing) and it will collapse quickly once congressional approval looks eminent. That’s when all hell breaks loose.
2015 – 2025 If the current Republicrat (current republicans and democrats are nearly the same at this point) regime remains in control of our nation
From there we have sky high inflation (over 20%) which will result in massive pain (compared to their former high quality of life) for the common middle and lower class of America and either A)a bloodless coupe with redistribution of wealth, B) another major war (God don't let the nukes fly, but they probably will) or C) a complete chaotic civil war.
The powers at be will be pushing for Alternative B so they don't lose their position in society and control. Who knows what will be the outcome at that point.
OK Ryan, consult MSNBC and Associated Press and tell me your predictions for the coming year.
Put it on the blog and we can come back in one year and see who’s closer to reality.
Come on Ryan, let’s quit the chatter and put it on paper young man.
Ryan,
ReplyDeleteIt's not just about calling the crash.
It's about the insanity of current policy. We are running serial deficits of 10% of GDP, a magnitude most recently seen in Greece.
Yes, the MSM give lip service to "the deficit," but they convey no sense of the magnitude of the problem. We are living so far beyond our means it's unbelievable. The government is borrowing 40 cents of every dollar it spends just to keep the economy limping along at its current anemic level. To say this is unsustainable is an understatement.
The recent budget deal was a joke. The Democrats couldn't find a single thing they wanted to cut in a $3.5 trillion budget, and the Republicans settled for "cuts" that amounted to less than a rounding error.
We have 14% of the population on food stamps. We are spending blood and treasure to maintain a global military empire to ensure cheap gas.
The government can't possibly tax enough to pay for this level of spending, so it's borrowing and printing insane amounts of money to keep it going. See Zimbabwe.
I won't predict as specifically as Mary exactly how this will all play out. I think we could have political resistance in Washington to the next stimulus and the next QE. Or maybe the pain can even be delayed for several more years with more bailouts, handouts, and money printing. But there will be serious pain of some sort when fiscal and monetary policy is this out of control.
All good points W.C.
ReplyDeleteThere is no way anyone can predict 3 to 5 years out accurately.
I was just laying out the logical arguments on the likely options will occur if the people in this country like Ryan don't wake up and see the seriousness of the situation. I am convinced the public are generally stupid sheep and will gladly keep their current comforts and belief that everything is O.K. as their shepherds lead them over the cliff.
History has proven that to be the case over and over again.
Come on W.C., you're well studied in the matter and seem to have a logical understanding of the issues. Give a prediction on where the economy will be at 5/17/2012. And Ryan- Quit the chatter and pony up!
Mary, you make me laugh. All you can talk about is your predictions and how great you are at timing the market. How about detailing your solutions? Anyone can rant on about problems, but you offer overly simplistic solutions and even when asked, provide no details.
ReplyDeleteMaybe you have not paid attention previously, but I 100% agree that the deficit should be priority number one. Both parties talk about the issue, but no one seems willing to take the first step. Why? Because it will be political suicide to propose the cuts that actually need to happen. We absolutely need to reform Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, but I would be that even the most ardent Tea Partier would balk at losing theirs.
What I see as the issue is that there is so much vitriol in politics (See Mary), that neither side can take a bold step without the other ruining them. Its unfortunate.
As for the upcoming year: I see the economy continuing to recover, though I doubt it will be quick. The jobs will come back, albeit slowly, and housing will continue to struggle due to the backlog of foreclosures. I think we'll have an extended hangover, but I don't think we'll fall back into a recession. Interest rates will rise with the return of inflation, but I don't think it will be too worrisome. Much better than the previously predicted deflation.
As for the future, no blood, no uprising, no civil war, and the middle class will be fine. I think the US will learn from its mistakes in Iraq, though probably not forever.
Go ahead Mary, scream away with your BS. It seems to be your only talent.
Ryan,
ReplyDeleteThanks for stepping up with your predictions. We shall see?
I am glad I make you laugh. You make me laugh and cry at the same time. You sound to me the typical American.
What are you talking about?
“We absolutely need to reform Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, but I would be that even the most ardent Tea Partier would balk at losing theirs.”
I never considered Medicare, Medicaid or social security a secured benefit. You can’t lose what you don’t have.
I never provided suggestions on how to correct the situation? WTF? Here they are as simple as you can get.
1. Cut medicare, social security and welfare to levels need to balance the budget along with the the cuts to the defence industry explained in 2. Everyone in the USA would still survive and maintain higher quality of lives than 90% of the human pollution around the world.
2. End the occupations and return our military to a defense military not an occupation force. With that cut the military budget 30 to 40% and do a massive downsize operation
3. With the saving from 2 above, have the Country’s goal to focus on providing the most educated workforce in the world. Increase the budget for education.
There you have it Ryan. My solutions. I know the current Republicrat will not even consider any of the above suggestions. So in my opinion, we are screws.
I will post again on this topic on 5/17/2012 and lets see how we did?
I “hope” your predictions come true. I am just not counting on it.
Have a great year and I’m still waiting for W.C.’s predictions for the upcoming year. Come on W.C. jump in. The waters warm.
I forget the most important suggestion.
ReplyDelete4. with the savings from 2, implement a reserve or payment program to eliminate our national debt in 30 to 40 years. Don't give any handouts to other countries until our debt is paid.
If we did the above, the world would see us as taking ownership of our future, confidence would be restored, and jobs would return.
Too bad its not going to happen.
Mary,
ReplyDeleteIf I had to guess for one year out I would say stagflation. More or less what we have right now, maybe a little worse on either inflation or unemployment.
Hah! What a couple of Negative Nancies!!
ReplyDeleteNo, I'm actually an optimist, if you consider the range of outcomes for countries that run serial deficits of 10% of GDP.
ReplyDeletePlease find me a country that ran serial deficits of 10% of GDP and had a happy outcome. And no, the US in WWII doesn't count, because that spending was to transport the entire draft age male population halfway around the world to fight the biggest war in history. And as soon as the war was over, we not only eliminated the war deficit, we ran surpluses.
Even if we brought all troops home immediately from Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, South Korea, Germany, and everywhere else in the empire, it wouldn't come close to balancing the budget.
We're not post-WWII America. We're Greece.
So if you have an argument for how we're going to get out of Greece-style 10% GDP deficits, I'd love to hear it.
I'm not sure I buy the US/Greece argument. The US actually has an economy, and we also pay our taxes.
ReplyDeleteAgain, the deficit needs to be fixed, but we have time.