Interesting real estate blog I found called This Old House Flip.
The blogger does a good job tracking people's attempts to buy and quickly sell a home (flipping). In some cases the homes were not even lived in. A handy chart is supplied to see the date purchased, original price and new asking price.
Hi I'm Bob Flippa and welcome to "This Old House Flip". We will be investigating detailed examples of flippers attempting to quickly make a profit buying and selling the "American Dream" of owning a home in the San Diego County area. This blog serves to educate potential buyers of the unscrupulous activies of these flippers and will hopefully save you money in the longterm.
Most of the homes are mind boggling ugly and look like they were designed by blind retarded monkeys instead of architects.
Encinitas listing
(I can only assume that "Bob Flippa" is a pseudonym. At least, I hope so).
eeeeerrrr eeeeerrrr eeeeeeeeeerrrrr
ReplyDeleteclick click click click
eeeeeeeerrrr eeeeeeeeeeerrrrr eeeeerrr
Before you buy anything consider,
ReplyDeletehttp://piggington.com/
http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html
Well, he finally came out and said it outright:
ReplyDeleteNational Association of Realtors Chief Economist David Lereah said the data held "mixed news" but it broadly signaled a stronger housing sector with inventories and sales stabilizing.
"The housing contraction has bottomed," he said.
So there you have it -- with an apparent lack of any doubt or question, Lereah called the bottom on December 28, 2006. Remember this one for the history books, my friends.
From http://piggington.com/
a house is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.
ReplyDeleteIf you are selling get all you can. If you are buying only pay what you want.
Now that the speculation craze is over there will be fewer people willing to pay 3 times over what they should pay, from an opportunity cost perspective.
ReplyDeleteDon't forget that there weren't enough ingorant investors to keep the tech boom going forever, and there aren't enought stupid rich people to keep the local housing market going up. Get ready for a long drawn out leak in the housing market. Flippers are going to get fried.
If the housing market is tanking, why are developers anxious to build in Encinitas?
ReplyDeleteCoral Cove = 68 units
Encinitas Artist's Lofts = 19 units
Pacific Station = 49 units
Brown Property = ?
When in Rome = ?
The list goes on.
These people aren't stupid.
Anon, That is a great question!
ReplyDeleteThose people aren't stupid at all, but maybe a little disappointed.
Keep in mind that those people are not flipping or resident owners! Also, keep in mind that a slumping market doesn't mean that prices are going to sink to like $45K for a SFR. These units have value. Maybe half of what they are selling for now. This is why so many property owners WERE converting their apartments to condos and selling them to all the suckers that thought that real estate won’t ever go down, so the high price was “worth it.” It was an investment! Very few people can afford the loans that they took on, at least not for long. So, there is only one way but down in this scenario unless wages rise or interest rates drop. Don’t hold your breath.
First off, many southern California home builders have cancelled or put orders on hold. New permit applications have dropped. Many developers are having a real hard time selling the inventory they have on hand already and are adding all sorts of incentives. The incentives mask the true deflation in market value and it will eventually catch up to the market. Your few examples in Encinitas do not a make a complete picture.
The developers you cite are taking property, which some of them have owned for a while, and dividing up the property into a shitload of units. This will help them to still make a huge killing. Some would say at the expense of everyone else if the density burdens the infrastructure.
Sure, they will be able to sell all those units but maybe not for anything near last year’s market prices. The crazy thing is that the prices are so over inflated that these developers are still going to have a HUGE profit margin because the cost of construction is way beyond what the selling price will be. The price of a house has not be related to the cost of construction for many many years.
A much better question would be how would I explain people selling a house today for 15% more than they bought it 1 year ago. The only thing is I don’t think you can make such as list for Encinitas.
Realtors are about as valuable and smart as blind monkeys. Today they say-the market has bottomed, and now is a great time to by. Tomorrow they say- the market has bottomed, and now is a great time to buy....and so on for the next 5 years. I never did see the value of Realtors. I bought both my homes through for sale by owner. I negotiated well, and it was simple. For most semi intelligent people, realtors are unnecessary and very expensive.
ReplyDeleteAll the new downtown density projects will be short term summer rentals.
ReplyDeleteCondo market is in the tank and that big condo project in Escondido goes up in flames.Hmmmmmm
ReplyDelete"These people aren't stupid"
ReplyDeleteI think they are. All kinds of types of intelligence out there.
I don't think it's smart to be greedy, focused on short term and individual specualtion for big profits, at the expense of a community's quality of life.
We don't want more upzoning! Any zoning change should be with a vote of the people.
Pacific Station will not improve our downtown, either.
I agree. No up-zoning without a resident vote.
ReplyDeleteI like our founder’s general plan and it’s the reason I bought in Encinitas 15 years ago. Even without up-zoning, the state has graciously granted a 30% increase to all property in CA with the density bonus laws. I think 30% or 20,000 more people within Encinitas are to much. We will look like Pacific Beach.
Don’t we have enough concerns over traffic, water and crowed parks and beaches. STOP DEVELOPERS PROFIT AT THE COMMUNITY EXPENSE.
NO TO ANY UPZONES WTIHOUT PUBLIC VOTE!
Yes, and I don't understand how it seems the "Specific Plans" for certain areas don't seem to go along with the original General Plan, which was our foundation.
ReplyDeleteDid we always have a three story height limit for mixed business and residential use along the 101 corridor?
I'll try to answer that.
ReplyDeleteIn all zones single family residential is limited to two stories, 26 ft.
In high density residential zones it's 2 stories and 30ft. However if a project has an affordable housing component, you are allowed three stories and you get to go to 33ft.
In the mixed use project zones, its the same fro the above however the housing component cannot be more than 50% of the project.
These rules have been the same for all the 20 years of cityhood and have not been increased.
I don't think they ever should be increased.
I will note that Carlsbad isthinging of increasing there heigth to 45 ft to accomodate 4 stories as a cytalyst for economic development.
Really bad idea. It pays to be vigilent in Encinitas because if a neighbor city does it you know the developers are going to be screaming to do it in Encinitas.
I hope carlsbad goes to 4 stories, I sure would like more of their traffic.
ReplyDeleteIf three stories is the limit and 26 feet, can anyone explain those crazy messed up towers on neptune?
Previous anon: thank you for your post and for answering my question!
ReplyDelete"As long a people are alone, they're not goint to be able to figure anything much out. If they're together, they'll start having thoughts, interchanging them and learning about them..." NoamChomsky
ReplyDeleteOh my God!
ReplyDeleteDevelopers saying there are too many houses.
http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com/2007/01/we-are-overbuilt.html
http://www.socalbubble.blogspot.com/
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